Monday 28 February 2011

Should The UN Deploy Peace Keeping Troops To Libya

Some commentators have drawn a parallel to Libya of the situation in Bosnia and later Kosovo in the 90's. There are similarities: an autocratic leader slaughtering his own people, use of the armed forces to carry out these atrocities, potential for the crisis to affect other states in the region.
There are however major differences. Firstly the Gaddafi regime doesn't have the kind of popular support that Milosovic enjoyed. Every day that passes sees his power base crumble still further as diplomats defect, the armed services switch to the side of the rebels, and more and more towns and cities become stable under opposition control.
Gaddafi now has a firm hold over only parts of Tripoli. Certainly he still has the support of a substantial part of his military, but as the crisis progresses there will be more defections, which will act as a vicious circle of waning support for the regime.
The deployment of foreign troops onto Libyan soil would likely make the situation worse, vindicating Gaddafi and his statements on the intents of foreign parties. This would without doubt stabilise the tyrants support at least.
Worse still military intervention could force the Gaddafi regime into deploying chemical weapons against his own people, or the peacekeeping troops.
Of course, if he does possess these weapons there is a risk that Gaddafi would use these weapons even without UN intervention - but as we saw with Libyan pilots flying to Malta, or ejecting instead of carrying out bombings against civilians, giving an order does not mean it will be executed. If Gaddafi did order his military to commit genocide I believe it would be the final straw in his own demise.
The UN must prepare and make itself ready, and do so quickly - Gaddafi is nothing if not unpredictable - but for now it must be calm and patient, and give this abominable regime a chance to destroy itself.

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