Some commentators have drawn a parallel to Libya of the situation in Bosnia and later Kosovo in the 90's. There are similarities: an autocratic leader slaughtering his own people, use of the armed forces to carry out these atrocities, potential for the crisis to affect other states in the region.
There are however major differences. Firstly the Gaddafi regime doesn't have the kind of popular support that Milosovic enjoyed. Every day that passes sees his power base crumble still further as diplomats defect, the armed services switch to the side of the rebels, and more and more towns and cities become stable under opposition control.
Gaddafi now has a firm hold over only parts of Tripoli. Certainly he still has the support of a substantial part of his military, but as the crisis progresses there will be more defections, which will act as a vicious circle of waning support for the regime.
The deployment of foreign troops onto Libyan soil would likely make the situation worse, vindicating Gaddafi and his statements on the intents of foreign parties. This would without doubt stabilise the tyrants support at least.
Worse still military intervention could force the Gaddafi regime into deploying chemical weapons against his own people, or the peacekeeping troops.
Of course, if he does possess these weapons there is a risk that Gaddafi would use these weapons even without UN intervention - but as we saw with Libyan pilots flying to Malta, or ejecting instead of carrying out bombings against civilians, giving an order does not mean it will be executed. If Gaddafi did order his military to commit genocide I believe it would be the final straw in his own demise.
The UN must prepare and make itself ready, and do so quickly - Gaddafi is nothing if not unpredictable - but for now it must be calm and patient, and give this abominable regime a chance to destroy itself.
Monday, 28 February 2011
Should The UN Deploy Peace Keeping Troops To Libya
Oman Export Refinery Under Siege Following Deaths Of Protesters
Thousands of protesters have blocked roads leading to an industrial area of of Sohar in Oman following the shooting dead of protesters in the gulf state. The death toll in Oman rose to six after police shot dead stone throwing protesters. The police opened fire on a group of protesters on Sunday. Later a police station and governmental offices were set fire to. Oman is a neighbour of Saudi Arabia and of Yemen, where similar protests are also taking place.
Friday, 25 February 2011
UPDATED: Map Of Areas Of Regime & Protester Control Within Libya
Map showing areas controlled by the Gaddafi regime (red) and anti-government protesters (green). If you can help improve this information leave a comment below.
Gaddafi appears in public
In the last few mins Gaddafi appeared and gave a speech in Green Square, Trapoli. He again mentioned that the forces of evil are behind this upraising and that he is one of the people. He tells them to dance, sing and stay up all night in the streets. He also says that he will not be beaten by these few, "We will die here, on the dear soil of Libya, we will beat all foreign threats like we did to the Italians." It comes as a surprise that he has made this public appearance, compared to only his telephone call the other day to state TV, but with the World's media allowed in for today maybe it shouldn't come as such a surprise and that Green Square has been bulked up for this show of defiance.
Conflict Of Interest Ahead Of UK AV Referendum
Ed Howker at The Spectator has revealed a staggering conflict of interest in the run up to a UK poll on voting reform.
The publication says that the Electoral Reform Society, a major backer of the Yes to AV campaign, donating over £1.05 million to the campaign, is also a shareholder of Electoral Reform Services Ltd., a private company heavily involved in the implementation of British democracy.
The company, with an annual turnover of £21 million, stands to benefit from a change to polling methods, a change that many critics say could cost over £250 million?
Thursday, 24 February 2011
Earthquake hits Hawaii
Reports are coming in that a 3.3 magnitude earthquake has hit the Oahu region in Hawaii. Jolts were felt 130 km (80 miles) away in the capital Honolulu, there are so far no reports of damage or injury.
Blast off for the last time: US Discovery
At 16:53 local time at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, NASA has launched US Discovery for the 39th and final time. With NASA now looking to deal with an American company to supply them with new launch services on a range of different vehicles, they are slowly retiring their own fleet, with Endeavour and Atlantis being the last two remaining.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)